Sunday, May 25, 2008

Owners Stay Put and Rents Rise

Weary of bad news on the housing market, yet wary of missing a deal, readers continue to ask: Should I rent or buy?

There are powerful arguments for both cases. On the one hand, no one wants to buy something that's falling in value. On the other, foreclosures are creating one of the best buying opportunities in years, and rents are ticking up. REIS, a New York-based real estate research firm, expects rents will rise 3.8% this year, compared to a 3.1% gain last year.

Although I think it's much better to buy when prices are low -- assuming you can get the financing and aren't planning to move in the next year or two -- many people apparently have become too pessimistic to make a move. Indeed, many Americans have become fence-sitters, according to a new survey done two weeks ago by Harris Interactive, a group that conducts online research - - though people who already own a home are the most resistant to moving.

The poll asked a pre-selected panel of consumers, consisting of 1,258 homeowners, 563 renters and 228 "others" (folks living with family or friends), questions about why they live where they do, and what their housing plans were for the future. The research was sponsored by the National Apartment Association.

The 2,049 respondents, whose answers were weighted to adjust for region, age, gender and other factors, were generally gloomy about the state of the economy. Eight out of 10 thought it would stay the same, or get worse, over the next six months. Consequently, 72% of homeowners and half of both renters and "others" plan to stay in their current residences over the next year.

The stay-in-place movement is a bit at odds with recent trends towards renting. Rising foreclosures and the credit crunch, along with widespread anxiety about the direction of home prices, have all played a part in swelling the tenant pool.

Homeownership rates fell to 67.8% in the first quarter of this year, down from a peak of 69.3% in the second quarter of 2004, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Doug Culkin, president of the apartment trade group that sponsored the poll, says that multifamily builders, who favored condos during boom times, are now concentrating on apartments.

Although Mr. Culkin expects that demand from young people entering the workforce, downsizing empty-nesters and immigrants will keep the rental market healthy for the next few years, it's unlikely that renting will ever be a permanent housing choice for most Americans.

And the survey seems to underscore this: Only 2% of owners and 12% of "others" said they planned to move out and rent with the next year, while 69% of tenants said they plan to rent for less than five years -- at which point, presumably, they will try to join the ranks of owners.

So, while renting may make sense right now if it suits your lifestyle, or you're financially stressed, don't wait forever if owning is your dream. Already, bargain hunters are starting to scoop up properties in places like Southern California, where total sales of new and resale homes and condos jumped 27%, to 31,150, in April from the month before, according to Dataquick Information Systems, a research firm.

That doesn't mean that the bottom of the market necessarily has been reached, but it is an indication that there's still pent-up demand for housing, and money available to buy it. And when it is reached, today's deals will disappear quickly.

Write to June Fletcher at june.fletcher@wsj.com



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